Key takeaways
- US population mortality is a key source of granular and current mortality experience. Emerging US results may provide leading insights into mortality trends for insured lives applicable to multiple markets and multiple functions within an insurer. These population trends might also signal the time when insurers can safely and reasonably redevelop new mortality bases from insured data.
- US excess mortality estimates for 2020 (March-December) and 2021 were 21% and 20%, respectively. This excess dropped to 12% in 2022 and 4% in 2023.
- We expect US population excess mortality to settle in the region of 1%-3% for 2024 overall; however, there is material uncertainty to this estimate – for one, 2024 has months remaining as of this writing. An overall excess of 1%-3% would be appreciably lower than the excess of 4% observed in 2023.
- Importantly, we demonstrate that age and sometimes sex differences significantly impact US population excess mortality estimates.
In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, RGA has conducted a thorough analysis of emerging US population data to explore how all-cause mortality and excess mortality have changed through the pandemic, determine what they look like in the short term, and understand where they may be headed.
While we have observed persistent excess mortality in the US population following the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, recent mortality trends – including 2024 excess death estimates – suggest that the overall excess has decreased substantially from the peak of the acute phase. Indeed, there is a possibility that the age-standardized mortality – for some age groups and sometimes depending on sex – will be lower in 2024 overall than that observed in 2019 and in-line with pre-pandemic expectations for the period.
To understand where population excess mortality may be headed in the medium term, a comprehensive evaluation of each major cause of death is essential. RGA will examine some of the trends in specific causes in subsequent reports.
To learn about the latest all-cause and by-cause report updates as they are published, sign up for RGA’s US mortality analysis email list.