In this Expert Q&A from RGA's ReFlections newsletter, Dr. Daniel D. Zimmerman sits down with David Sinclair, CEO of the International Longevity Centre UK, to discuss the challenges presented by aging populations, the importance of promoting healthspan as well as lifespan, and his hopes for future generations.
With decades of experience in policy and research on aging and demographic change, David Sinclair serves as CEO of the International Longevity Centre UK (ILCUK). He is a recognized expert in aging-society issues, having presented on longevity and demographic change across the world and published reports on topics ranging from transport and technology to health and consumption.
In this Expert Q&A from RGA's ReFlections newsletter, Sinclair recently sat down with Dr. Daniel D. Zimmerman, Senior Vice President and Chief Science Advisor at RGA and co-editor of ReFlections, to discuss the challenges presented by aging populations, the importance of promoting healthspan as well as lifespan, and his hopes for future generations.
I see the ILCUK as the leading authority on longevity and its impact on society. The Centre focuses on understanding how individuals, businesses, and governments can adapt to demographic changes. We engage with change-makers and take a very broad, rather than deep, approach to problem solving. About half of our work is now global vs. UK-specific. In fact, most of our partners from various geographies in the International Longevity Centre Global Alliance also work globally. We do a lot of bilateral work with other alliance members and are keen to do more collaborative global projects with our network of diverse experts around the world.
With organizations like the Longer Life Foundation, we look to collaborate in developing solutions to help society adapt to the challenges of people living longer. We can work with the foundation to get its research learnings to policymakers to help drive change.
The fundamental challenge that many economies around the world face stems from demographic changes related to the number of people working compared to those not working. In wealthier countries people are working less than ever before. The number of hours per week has fallen, and workers are retiring earlier. People in modern economies are struggling to remain productive for as many years as possible. Even into old age, we all need to have a purpose, and the role of work can fulfill that purpose.
"As populations grow older, we need to turn away from ageism and instead find ways to use the wisdom of our elders to tackle the big challenges, from climate change on down."
With declining birth rates, governments have very little power over how many children are born. If you look at countries such as Japan, Korea, Hungary, and Poland – places where the government has encouraged having more children – people have essentially ignored those directives. Governments can do certain things, such as investing in care and ensuring availability of flexible work hours, but simply telling people what to do has not been successful.
The “longevity dividend” may present an opportunity. The key is maintaining good health into old age. Essentially, if we stay healthy, we work more, we volunteer more, we care more, and we spend more. Evidence supports the validity of the longevity dividend in the UK as well as globally. At the heart of the opportunity lies the wealth, knowledge, and expertise that comes with long lives. Again, good health is essential. In addition, governments need to remove barriers to consumption and active participation as people age. Just consider what economists have termed the “retirement consumption puzzle”: While most wealth resides with older people, they spend much less than they have. It is therefore clearly important to keep older people engaged economically.
With notable changes in aging populations and rising healthcare costs, societies need to invest in preventive health. As innovations from the pharmaceutical and biotech industries or other sectors tackle the diseases that become more common with age, I think governments will see the value in investing in these advances.
With regard to financial security, we should encourage people to save sufficiently by supporting work-pay savings programs and similar programs for the self-employed. I recommend building in “auto-escalating” structures, which increase savings year over year. Today, just 4% of wealth in the UK is held by people under age 40, and this has decreased over the last several years. New approaches must help address the balance of wealth between young and old.
Regarding health, I believe more regulation around tobacco and alcohol would be a prudent step. This all ties into extending the healthspan. Ideally, we want to reduce the difference between life expectancy and healthy life expectancy. Even in countries with high life expectancy, healthy life expectancy is 10 years shorter. In South Korea, for example, which performs very well on our Healthy Ageing and Prevention Index, this 10-year gap remains.
I think these companies can play a huge role, and that is why we work with the insurance industry – from promoting financial sustainability to improving population health. The industry can adapt products for the changing demography, which is much more complicated now than in the past. The industry also can incentivize the prevention of ill health, promote long-term savings through product design, and even drive public policy in these areas. Supporting workplace health is key, including in small organizations. We should think in terms of delivering a social good, a purpose and invest in future generations and healthy aging.
I think the biggest challenge is the gap between healthy life expectancy and life expectancy, which is driven by significant inequality. If we are to fill that gap, we must find a way of marrying them. Without a clear focus on availability and access, for example, new innovations and pharmaceuticals actually pose a risk of widening that gap. Companies must prioritize population health as well as individual health.
As populations grow older, we need to turn away from ageism and instead find ways to use the wisdom of our elders to tackle the big challenges, from climate change on down.
I am hopeful that policymakers and industry can solve some of the biggest challenges. For example, before we had the smoking ban in the UK, the political narrative was that this would never happen. People stepped up to the challenge. When I was younger, CFCs and their impact on the ozone layer were a big worry, but governments globally regulated CFC emissions and the problem was sorted out. It is important to find ways to allow our political leaders to make difficult decisions.
I find the work fascinating, and I get to talk with interesting people from around the world. Societal aging is not about a single issue – it involves economics, philosophy, geography, biology, behavioral science, and diplomacy. This is what makes my work so stimulating, but it also makes it difficult to drive change. But times have changed, and many more people are interested in demographic changes, including powerful entities such as central bankers. There is a growing recognition that global economies are changing, and we must learn how to adapt.
