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  • Research and White Papers
  • June 2023

Coffee Consumption – How Much is Too Much? And How Little is Not Enough?

A man carefully sips a drink of coffee
In Brief
While millions of people worldwide start their day with a cup of coffee to get that caffeine "hit," they may not realize that they are also promoting long-term health and longevity. RGA's Hilary Henly explores the benefits of daily coffee consumption and the implications for insurers. 

Globally, an estimated 2.25 billion cups of coffee are consumed every day.1 Roughly 80% of Americans drink coffee with 60% of the total population drinking coffee daily.2  

Research suggests coffee consumption may be one habit worth keeping. It has been associated with a reduced risk of all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality from type 2 diabetes, Parkinson’s disease, liver disease, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and colorectal, liver, and renal cancers.3 Cancer and heart disease account for the largest percentage of causes of death in the United States at 37% and 20% respectively,2 so perhaps now is the time to get in that extra morning sip!  

Coffee compounds  

When people think about needing a cup of coffee, they often think about the need for caffeine, a natural stimulant known to combat fatigue and increase energy levels, but the benefits of coffee go far beyond the intake of caffeine. Coffee contains over 1000 bioactive compounds), many of which have antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, and antifibrotic properties. Examples include diterpenes such as cafestol and kahweol, potassium, niacin (vitamin B3), polyphenols such as chlorogenic acids (CGAs), and tocopherols (a form of vitamin E). Coffee is a major source of caffeine, which stimulates the central nervous system, leading to increased activity and physical exercise, one of the key factors in improved health and longevity. 

Coffee also contains other compounds such as trigonelline, melanoidins, and magnesium, which are known to have antioxidant properties.Trigonelline and magnesium can improve insulin sensitivity and glucose resistance.6 The levels of compounds in a cup of coffee vary by the type of coffee bean used, the roasting process, the brewing technique, and the size of the serving. For example, cafestol and kahweol are removed via filtration and therefore have a lower presence in filtered and instant coffee.7 

An image of coffee and a stethoscope


Effects of compounds on human health

Different compounds in coffee influence biological activity in humans such as the microbiome composition, fecal output, inflammation, secretion of bile acids, and insulin sensitivity.7 Coffee may produce anticarcinogenic effects, including inhibition of the enzyme responsible for carcinogen activation.6 

In 1991, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) classified coffee as ‘possibly carcinogenic to humans, but in 2016, following a review of over a thousand studies, it found that there was insufficient evidence to support this finding and it is now not classified as carcinogenic. In 2015 the US Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee concluded that up to five 8-ounce cups/day can be part of a healthy diet.8 For healthy adults, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has cited 400 milligrams per day of caffeine as an amount not generally associated with dangerous or negative effects.9 

Research suggests coffee consumption may be one habit worth keeping. It has been associated with a reduced risk of all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality from type 2 diabetes, Parkinson’s disease, liver disease, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and colorectal, liver, and renal cancers."

Coffee intake is associated with short-term elevations in arterial pressure, insulin resistance, and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) but is not related to hypertension with long-term intake as it induces tolerance to its acute and short-term pressure effect.10 Caffeine is associated with a higher risk of some cardiovascular diseases but is also understood to have antioxidant capacity and limit the growth of human colon cancer cells.7  More than 95% of caffeine is metabolized by the enzyme cytochrome P450 1A2 but a polymorphism in the CYP1A2 gene affects caffeine metabolism. People with AC and CC genotypes are slow metabolizers, while AA genotypes are fast metabolizers.11 

Coffee consumption can help prevent gallstone formation, improve lipid metabolism regulation, decrease liver enzymes and rates of liver steatosis, and reduce the risk of liver inflammation, fibrosis, and disease progression.12 It has been found to lower the risk of CVD by reducing inflammation and lowering blood sugar.13  

Improving Smoking and Alcohol Disclosures Using Behavioral Science

All-cause and cause-specific mortality  

Using data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort, researchers found that consumption of 3+ cups/day of coffee was associated with lower all-cause mortality in men (Hazard ratio (HR) 0.88) and in women (HR 0.93) compared with no coffee consumption. For cause-specific mortality, a lower risk of death from digestive and circulatory disease was noted. Coffee drinkers were found to have more favorable liver function and inflammatory biomarker profiles than non or low-consumers of coffee. Seruml levels of liver function enzymes including alanine aminotransferase (ALT), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) were also lower among coffee drinkers than non or low consumers of coffee.1 


TABLE 1: ASSOCIATIONS OF COFFEE CONSUMPTION (HR*) AND ALL-CAUSE AND CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY IN MEN

Variable  

<1 cup/day 

1- < 2 cups/day 

2- <3 cups day 

3+ cups/day 

All-cause 

0.94 

0.88 

0.84 

0.88 

Cancer 

0.92 

0.97 

0.92 

0.99 

Circulatory disease  

1.02 

0.93 

0.87 

0.93 

CVD 

0.94 

0.83 

0.76 

0.83 

IHD 

1.03 

0.96 

0.92 

0.97 

Digestive disease 

1.00 

0.69 

0.46 

0.41 

Respiratory disease 

1.00 

0.81 

0.84 

1.05 

*Hazard ratio compares the result of those exposed to those not exposed 

TABLE 2: ASSOCIATIONS OF COFFEE CONSUMPTION (HR) AND ALL-CAUSE AND CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY IN WOMEN1 

Variable  

<1 cup/day 

1-< 2 cups/day 

2- <3 cups day 

3+ cups/day 

All-cause 

0.94 

0.90 

0.90 

0.93 

Cancer 

1.00 

1.05 

1.04 

1.12 

Circulatory disease  

0.89 

0.74 

0.77 

0.78 

CVD 

0.85 

0.77 

0.74 

0.70 

IHD 

1.03 

0.83 

0.74 

0.82 

Digestive disease 

1.00 

0.70 

0.67 

0.60 

Respiratory disease 

1.00 

0.95 

0.83 

0.91 

Using data from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial Cohort, researchers looked at the association of coffee consumption with overall and cause-specific mortality. Among 90,317 US adults, coffee drinkers versus nondrinkers had a lower risk for overall mortality, with inverse associations observed for deaths from heart disease, cancer, chronic lower respiratory diseases (CLRD), stroke, Alzheimer’s disease, and type 2 diabetes. 2 

TABLE 3: DAILY COFFEE CONSUMPTION (HR) WITH ALL-CAUSE MORTALITY AND CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY2 

Mortality variable 

<1 cup/day 

1 cup/day 

2-3 cups/day 

4-5 cups/day 

All-cause 

0.99 

0.94 

0.82 

0.79 

Heart disease 

1.00 

0.81 

0.74 

0.75 

Cancer 

0.93 

1.05 

0.95 

0.95 

CLRD 

0.93 

0.73 

0.78 

0.68 

Stroke 

0.89 

0.88 

0.68 

0.77 

Alzheimer’s disease 

1.01 

0.66 

0.59 

0.72 

Diabetes 

1.90 

1.38 

0.79 

0.88 

Coffee consumption and cancer 

Coffee consumption has been shown to reduce the risk of multiple cancers due to its antioxidants and anticarcinogenic compounds. Research suggests that caffeine and diterpenes such as cafestol, and kahweol exert anti-carcinogenic effects while phenolic compounds in coffee such as CGA exert antioxidant and anti-inflammatory effects.12 

A meta-analysis of 59 studies that looked at the association between coffee consumption and cancer found that an increase in consumption of 1 cup/day was associated with a 3% reduction in the relative risk (RR**) of cancer (RR 0.97). Coffee consumption was inversely associated with bladder (RR 0.83), breast (RR 0.94), buccal and pharyngeal (RR 0.49), colorectal (RR 0.89), endometrial (RR 0.74), esophageal (RR 0.55), hepatocellular (RR 0.54), leukemia (RR 0.64), pancreatic (RR0.82) and prostate (RR 0.79) cancer.3 

**Relative risk refers to the probability of the disease in coffee drinkers compared to non-coffee drinkers 

A study using data from the UK Biobank showed a marked inverse association between hepatocellular carcinoma and coffee consumption (HR 0.50), which was similar for instant (HR 0.51) and ground coffee (HR 0.47). The risk of pancreatic cancer was reduced by 34% in people who consumed decaffeinated coffee compared to those who did not drink any coffee. While the risk of gallbladder and extrahepatic bile duct carcinoma was increased with any coffee consumption, it was most significant in people who consumed decaffeinated coffee (HR 2.44).14 

A separate study again using data from the UK Biobank showed that coffee consumption was associated with an increased risk of digestive system cancer (Odds ratio*** (OR) 1.28), and multiple myeloma (OR 2.25). There was also an increased risk of esophageal cancer, potentially resulting from gastroesophageal reflux, which is known to occur with coffee intake, which promotes esophageal inflammation, a precursor to cancer.15 
***Odds ratio refers to the measure of association in coffee drinkers compared to non-coffee drinkers.

Other research has shown a reduced risk of renal and liver cancers. In 2018, renal cancer accounted for approximately 2.4% of all worldwide cancer cases, with incidence continuing to rise in many parts of the world. A study on coffee consumption and renal cancer showed that there was a relative risk of 0.88 with the highest (>4 cups/day) compared to lower coffee consumption (<1 cup/day or <2 cups/day). It was estimated that one additional cup of coffee per day was associated with a 3% decrease in the risk of renal cancer.16 

Incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the US has tripled in the last three decades, and the 5-year survival rate is currently less than 12%. Individuals who drank 2-3 cups/day of coffee were found to have a 38% reduced risk of HCC, while those who drank >4 cups/day had a 41% reduced risk of HCC compared to non-coffee drinkers. Individuals who drank 2-3 cups/day had a 46% reduced risk of chronic liver disease (CLD) mortality while those who drank > 4 cups/day had a 71% reduced risk compared to non-coffee drinkers. Increasing coffee intake, particularly by > 2 cups/day was associated with a reduced incidence of HCC (33%) and reduced CLD mortality (46%).17 

TABLE 4: CAFFEINATED COFFEE CONSUMPTION INTAKE (RR**) WITH HCC INCIDENCE AND CLD MORTALITY (REF=0 CUPS)17 

Variable 

1 cup/day 

2-3 cups/day 

> 4 cups/day 

HCC  

0.97 

0.73 

0.81 

CLD 

0.99 

0.64 

0.40 

**Relative risk refers to the probability of the disease in coffee drinkers compared to non-coffee drinkers 

Conclusions

Different compounds in coffee play a beneficial role in human health for all-cause and cause-specific mortality from conditions such as diabetes, CVD, some cancers, and neurological diseases. Daily coffee consumption, particularly at higher levels, has been shown to improve mortality, protect against diseases, and slow the progression of inflammation. While further research is required to clarify the association between coffee consumption and mortality, drinking several cups of coffee a day has many benefits, including antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, and anticarcinogen effects. This in turn leads to lower rates of chronic disease, impacting many aspects of insurance, including pricing, product development, and the number of health claims made to insurers.  

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Meet the Authors & Experts

Hilary Henly
Author
Hilary Henly
Global Medical Researcher, Strategic Research 

References

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