Recent estimates from the World Economic Forum (WEF), made in collaboration with Oliver Wyman, suggest that cumulatively by 2050 climate change could lead to an extra 14.5 million deaths worldwide under a “middle of the road” greenhouse gas emissions scenario, driven by floods, droughts, heatwaves, and tropical storms.1
To a first-order approximation, the WEF/Oliver Wyman estimates imply that annual average global mortality rates could increase by around 1%. Vulnerability to these climate change risks varies by region, so it can be expected that if the average impact is 1%, some regions will see a significantly higher increase in mortality rates.
Africa is expected to be affected by most of the risks associated with climate change. The WEF analysis points to the vulnerability of middle Africa to floods, southwestern Africa to droughts, and southern and western Africa to heatwaves.
Given the importance of the insurance market in South Africa, RGA reviewed the academic literature to assess the possible impact climate change could have on future mortality in South Africa by 2050 under the SSP2-4.5 “middle of the road” emissions scenario. This article provides a summary of that analysis.
Table 1 summarizes RGA’s analysis of how, according to current academic literature, the mortality impact of physical risks related to climate change might change by 2050 in a “middle of the road” 1°C warming scenario in South Africa.
The analysis explores a range of climate-related factors, noting only slight increases in mortality risk from several of those factors and a decrease in mortality risk from at least one of them (air pollution from coal power stations – due to a planned transition to renewable energy). For a breakdown of how these figures were derived, view the full report.
For certain other climate-related factors, mortality risk in South Africa is relatively insignificant now and will remain so for the given climate change scenario. For example, consider this statistic as is relates to risks from storm surges and sea level rise: A 2010 assessment estimated that only around 0.16% of the population of South Africa (roughly 100,000 people), live within 5m of sea level.2 Contrast that with around 30% of the population of Florida in the United States (around 7.4 million people) living at less than 2m of sea level.3
Unfortunately, the lack of sufficient research prevents quantification of the potential change for the two risks with the largest estimated current population impact:
Based on around 500,000 annual population deaths currently experienced in South Africa, physical risks associated with climate change under this scenario would account for fewer than an additional 2,000 annual population deaths.
However, this does not capture anticipated population growth over the period to 2050 and, except for the impact on average temperatures, the anticipated aging of the population.
On the positive side, risks associated with the transition to a lower carbon economy have the potential to improve health:
RGA conducted an online survey over three weeks from January to February 2024 in the South Africa market. The survey sought to gauge life and health insurers’ current level of concern and strategic priorities around the emerging risks related to climate change. A total of 20 respondents provided answers with representation from 17 companies. Key takeaways include:
Climate science has improved markedly over recent decades, but significant uncertainty remains. That said, even doubling or tripling the impacts of each risk to account for uncertainty would still lead to a relatively modest overall physical impact in South Africa in the given scenario. It is important to acknowledge, however, that considerations outside of the scope this paper could also play a significant role:
This analysis focuses on the direct mortality impacts of physical risks, but these physical risks could cause new onset morbidity that may lead to negative mortality impacts further into the future.
Severe weather events that do not have a significant direct mortality impact can still have significant negative economic impacts and severely damage infrastructure, both of which could lead to negative health consequences and, ultimately, higher mortality.
Other countries in southern Africa may see greater impacts, which may lead to inward migration into South Africa that could put strain on public services such as healthcare.
This analysis considered each physical risk in isolation, but the reality is more complex and interactions between risks increase uncertainty. There is also the risk of reaching climate tipping points, which could lead to a self-reinforcing cycle of increased greenhouse gas emissions and warming.
Some of the actions that have led to climate change, such as deforestation, bring humans and animals closer into contact, which increases the risk of zoonotic disease transmission and increases the risk of future pandemics.
Conclusion
This analysis set out to review the academic literature to assess the possible impact climate change could have on future mortality in South Africa by 2050 under the SSP2-4.5 “middle of the road” emissions scenario. Over longer periods and in higher emissions scenarios, the mortality impact could be greater.
For those physical risks where the change could be estimated, the overall impact was relatively modest, with annual population deaths potentially increasing by less than 0.4%. In addition, this impact would be reduced by adaptation measures taken to mitigate the mortality impact of these physical risks. This potentially surprising result may be counter to expectations of a more significant impact, although we need to recognize the uncertainties involved.
The modest negative mortality impact from physical risks in South Africa outlined here does not absolve society from taking action – both in South Africa and globally – to limit greenhouse gas emissions and future climate change impacts.
Climate change remains a significant risk factor and a priority issue that must be addressed through collective action at the government, corporate, and individual levels. The insurance industry has an opportunity to play a leadership role in combating the climate crisis by promoting awareness, providing education, and inspiring, motivating, and incentivizing populations to modify behaviors in ways that will benefit their own health and the planet’s health.
RGA has made all reasonable efforts to ensure that the information provided in this publication is accurate at the time of inclusion and accepts no liability for any inaccuracies or omissions.
Notes
Note: This list contains all references used for the creation of the white paper, “The Impact of Climate Change on Future Mortality in South Africa,” which served as the source for all content contained in this article.
